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Ordinary Americans beat “specialists ” in calling mortgage Prices
Obviously, that insight does not help with the immediate question home buyers may have around this massive financial decision: Is it a fantastic time to refinance? Give it a few weeks or lock in now?

And notably,”Will rates go up?” Is much wider question than”What will rates be?” At a point in time.
The article Wisdom of Crowds?

In the most recent month, for example, 39% of respondents said they expected rates to go up, fewer than expected such a move when requested a month earlier. And more of those queried said they thought that rates would return, 10 percent, in fact, versus only 6% who expected a fall when requested a month earlier.
Fannie Mae; Freddie Mac

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When nine decades of survey data have been plotted against real mortgage rate movements, it’s striking: Americans’ expectations of rates have moved fairly closely together with the markets because about 2013.
If you’ve ever locked in a mortgage rate only to see borrowing costs drop even more, you know how frustrating it can be to try to forecast exactly what markets will do and when, exactly, they will do it.

Nonetheless, the track record is somewhat better than the forecasts from”specialist” economists and housing-market trackers. As a reminder, that category, as surveyed by MarketWatch last December, forecast the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage would eventually”lift off,” and average roughly 5.1% during 2019. So far this calendar year, it’s really averaged 4.18%down about 40 basis points from last year. Down, not up.
Nonetheless, it seems like Americans as a group could be getting better at these predictions.
Each month, mortgage liquidity supplier Fannie Mae conducts a poll of households, which inquires whether people expect mortgage rates to move down or up.