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Posted To: MBS Commentary

The labour market has been the last bastion of protection against the many threats to the present economic expansion. Inflation may be intractable. Global expansion might be a concern. But don't try to tell me a downturn or even a contraction is in the cards with the ordinary NFP number hanging out about 200k and an unemployment rate under 4 percent! After today, we have 2 NFP readings at the previous 4 months falling nicely under 100k for the first time since the labor market crawled from its hole in 2011-2012. Combine this with already-swirling anxieties about global growth, trade wars, along with other sectors of the domestic economy and it makes some sense that investors are starting to become nervous. In fact, they were clearly nervous BEFORE this morning's jobs report if Fed rate cut expectations were some…(read more)